Projecting AFC West Standings
Cheifs: 12-5
I’m sure the Chiefs are trying to erase their last game from memory. A blowout loss in the Super Bowl, ending their shot at the first-ever three-peat, was not how anyone envisioned the season wrapping up. Still, this team’s identity remains as steady as ever. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Andy Reid have built a foundation that consistently delivers. Their 15–2 campaign included plenty of close calls, but Kansas City always seems to find a way.
While they remain one of the league’s safest playoff bets, there are real concerns. The AFC West is more competitive, Kelce looks primed for regression, and the Chiefs tied a league record with 11 one-possession games last year, breaks that don’t always go the same way twice. Even so, betting against Mahomes feels foolish. As long as he’s under center, the Chiefs will always have a chance to make another deep run.
Chargers: 10-7
As much as it pains me to say as a Rams fan, the Chargers are on the rise. Jim Harbaugh has injected life into this franchise in a way few thought possible, bringing toughness and accountability that had been missing for years. Justin Herbert continues to be a top-seven quarterback, but the lingering question is when his immense talent will finally translate into postseason success. While they don’t always get the media spotlight, this is a well-rounded roster that should comfortably post a winning record.
The defense is still inconsistent, but with Harbaugh’s emphasis on the trenches and a strong offensive line protecting Herbert, the Chargers are built to grind out wins. In a stacked AFC, I wouldn’t bet on them winning multiple playoff games, but they’re becoming one of those teams you can count on to be in the mix every year. Regular-season success seems likely, it’s the leap to January that remains the big unknown.
Broncos: 9-8
Sean Payton doesn’t get nearly enough credit for what he’s done with this team. In just one year, he took a roster still reeling from the disastrous Russell Wilson trade and molded it into a competitive, winning group. Bo Nix was one of the biggest surprises of last season, showing poise, accuracy, and game awareness that few expected from a rookie many thought was drafted too early. Looking back, he may already be the most underrated quarterback of the 2024 draft class.
“Underrated” really describes the Broncos as a whole. They boast the league’s second-best offensive line, a defense that ranks among the toughest in football, and a secondary only strengthened by first-round pick Jahdae Barron. While they don’t generate the headlines of their division rivals, this roster is solid top to bottom. The AFC is brutal, and Denver lacks the sheer firepower of the elite contenders, but with Payton’s coaching and Nix’s growth, the Broncos feel like a team that will consistently hang around the playoff picture.
Raiders: 7-11
I absolutely love the hiring of Pete Carroll this offseason. The Raiders have been an absolute mess since the John Gruden scandal, going from one patchwork solution to another. With superstars like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers but little direction, the franchise desperately needed stability. The decision to re-sign interim head coach Antonio Pierce only highlighted that dysfunction, so bringing in Carroll feels like the first real step toward consistency.
In terms of finding that consistency, first-round pick Ashton Jeanty should help. We’ve seen running backs elevate struggling teams time and time again, and while Jeanty hasn’t looked great in preseason, the potential is there. This team won’t post a winning record in 2025, but they don’t necessarily need to. Simply looking like a competent organization again under Carroll would mark a huge step in the right direction. For a franchise stuck in chaos for years, competence itself would be progress.
